Articles:

• The geological perspective of climate change  

By Malini Shankar

Digital Discourse Foundation 

Bangalore: Dr. M.N. Rajeevan the Director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (http://www.tropmet.res.in/) in Pune tells this writer exclusively by email “The Chennai flood was caused due to continuous rainfall activity concentrated over the coastal Tamil Nadu, around Chennai between 28th Nov – and 3rd December 2015. 

However, rainfall during 01-02 December at Chennai (around 35 Cm) was an extraordinary event; Recent studies suggest that such heavy rainfall spells are increasing and may increase in future due to global warming. The Chennai flood is caused due to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). The above normal rainfall during the season was expected as this year is an El Nino year and we can expect above normal NE Monsoon rainfall during El Nino periods” adds Dr. Rajeevan.

 El Nino or climate change, the third dimension of the Chennai floods is encroachment of water bodies (courtesy the political class) that act as natural drainage in coastal ecosystems. “T Nagar is an affluent residential suburb in Chennai today but it is built on ponds that were clogged by developers and builders between 1978 and 1981. After the Mumbai flood of July 2005 a committee of which I was a member recommended that water weirs have to be designed and constructed to drain high tide water that lashes the city but remains in the city’s cemented environment clogged and unable to discharge into the sea” said Dr. Arun Bapat noted geologist, speaking exclusively to this writer.

El Nino is a term that refers to the reversal of the normally anticlockwise cold Humboldt Current that hugs the Chilean coast in the South Pacific Ocean and coursing instead in a clockwise motion, thus reversing seasons corresponding to a latitude-longitude calibration right across the whole world. Reversal of seasons brings in unseasonal weather, so if Southwest monsoons are washed out in India North East monsoons compensates for the deficit in south west monsoons. 

El Nino is notorious for exacerbating weather systems bringing unseasonal weather almost around the whole world and in places where there is no unseasonal weather, the weather heaves gargantuan impacts. 

El Nino exacerbates all hydrometeorological calamities - Avalanches, Blizzards, Cloudbursts, Coastal Incursion, Cyclones, Droughts, Desertification, (differential impact of) El Niño Southern Oscillation, Epidemics, Floods, Flash Floods, Famine, Forest Fires, Fog, Hailstorm Landslides, Mudslides, sand storm, Sea surge, Storms, squalls, thunderstorms and urban floods. Tsunamis triggered by ice berg melt and seamount explosions may also construe hydrometeorological disasters by definition atleast. Overground peat emissions in Indonesia spawn forest fires; and fog in Indonesia being exacerbated by El Nino events of 1998 and 2015 has been documented.

Understanding geological phenomena like El Nino helps documentation so we know better in the future. Sea level rise corresponds to the sinking of riparian deltas thanks to the deposition of silt say the purists. 

Quantifying the Subterranean peat emissions of methane from deep underground by source will strengthen the case for reduction in emissions. The melting permafrost formed in Siberia 11,000 years ago is developing massive sinkholes with one being recorded as 70 metres deep and 600 metres in diametre. Hydrometeorological disasters will have increasingly debilitating impact on vulnerable communities and Island States in the decades ahead if emission targets are not met.

That the geological perspective of climate change is significant (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/) was also supported by a study by School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds which quantified the emissions from Iceland’s Bardarbunga volcanic eruption of summer 2014 @ 120,000 tons of sulphur dioxide gas per day at the onset of its eruption completely outdoing the industrial emissions in Europe. 

According to a new study on the subject -- published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023638/full -- the volcano's toxic emissions bested the average amount of sulphur dioxide produced by European industry, by a large margin. 

  “The eruption discharged lava at a rate of more than 200 cubic metres per second. In the study, we were concerned with the quantity of sulphur dioxide emissions, with numbers that are equally astonishing: In the beginning, the eruption emitted about eight times more sulphur dioxide per day than is emitted from all man-made sources in Europe per day” Dr Anja Schmidt School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds said in a press release (http://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2015/volcano-230915). Its significance lies in emphasising the natural, benign sources of global warming like volcanic emissions.

So does it mean that man-made emissions can be overwhelmed by volcanic emissions? Climate scientists aver and with good reason that anthropocentric emissions of CO2 is hundred times more than volcanic emissions on a year to year basis. It is a thin line of distinction that differentiates the emissions from steam and water vapour in the atmosphere. While volcanic emissions of SO2 cools the atmosphere, <1% of CO2 from volcanic emissions warm the atmosphere according to a NASA website article (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teafrpage/) 

There are many other examples of volcanological perspective of climate change. Lake Toba’s super volcanic eruption 74000 years ago robbed the earth of sun rays triggering the Ice Age. 

Krakatau super volcanic eruption in the Java Straits in August 1883 triggered a short term climate change globally, inducing crimson sunsets on the Chesapeake Bay near Washington DC on the East Coast of the United States for months after the super volcanic eruption of 1883. 

To think that a volcano in the Java Straits between Sumatra and Java triggered crimson sunsets near Washington DC on Chesapeake Bay on the East Coast / Atlantic Coast of the United States implies that the band of volcanic plume in the stratosphere has painted the skies of the Pacific Ocean and mainland North America orange; it not just inspires awe but commands deeper study of the volcanic perspective of climate change. 

In Bengal in India the Sun could not be sighted for a decade. “But a decade after the Krakatau super volcanic explosion”, - seismologists – like Dr. Arun Bapat allude to the transient nature of short term climate change – “wherever the ash of Krakatau had fallen, the agricultural lands became very fertile for six to eight months following the volcanic eruption”. 

The Tambora super volcanic eruption in Sumbawa in Indonesia triggered the Year Without a Summer in Canadian Eastern Sea Board in 1815 - 16. It took a decade for the global climate to stabilise after Tambora’s eruption. ‘

Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in the Philippines in October 1991 cooled the planet by a significant 0. 10 C, clearly establishing the link between global weather and volcanism. “During the 1900s there were three large eruptions that caused the entire planet to cool down by as much as 1°C. Volcanic cooling persist for only 2 to 3 years because the aerosols ultimately fall out of the stratosphere and enter the lower atmosphere where rain and wind quickly disperse them”. (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/) 

 Lahars flowing from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in October 1991. A super volcano, it accunted for global decrease in temperatures that have been estimated variously frm 10 F to 10 C. © GVP of Smithsonian Institutions. 

Climate scientists worry at the rapid pace of glacial retreats triggered by fossil fuel emissions and anthropocentric triggers.  But geologists are sceptical of glacial retreat being triggered by anthropocentric emissions.

 “Last Glacial Maximum Period is also a matter for study. It has been observed that most of the glaciation – there is evidence to suggest that major glacial advancement happened 50 – 55000 years ago, but it is still being worked out, but after that period there have been 3 – 4 periods of glaciations and de-glaciation. Glacial advancement and recession is a climate change cycle. It is not happening for the first time, we have those records. There is a geological cycle to it…” says Professor Rameshwar Bali Associate Professor of Geology at the Centre of Advanced Studies in Geology, Lucknow University in India.   

“…For us in the Indian subcontinent global warming is not as bad as global cooling because then the monsoons and economy will be severely affected. Monsoons happen because of summer warming but if the summer temperatures cool, monsoons are affected, impairing our economy and the whole cycle of seasons in Asia. So global cooling is more dangerous to tropical countries as the entire economic cycle will be affected by global cooling and inadequate monsoons. Entire Indian Ocean rim countries will be affected” says Professor Bali during a discussion with this writer for my book research of “Preparing for the Day After” (https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=EbzkBQAAQBAJ) 

Retired Dean of Institute of Socio Economic Change (http://www.isec.ac.in/) Professor R. S. Deshpande says “modelling micro climate for long period average is difficult given that micro climate itself is affected by terrain, waterscape, landscape, humidity, precipitation (rainfall / snowfall) wind speeds etc. Lat long calibration of long term global climate is correspondingly diverse. Climate change has over the millennia shaped climate change adaptation - change in cropping patterns and consumption of agricultural produce”.  

 The earth’s axis varies between 220 and 24.50 according to the Milankovitch Cycle http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Milankovitch/).  Milutin Milankovitch, a prisoner of Stalinist Russia in Siberia during the 2nd World War hypothesized that the speed of the earth’s revolution on its elliptical orbit is altered by the velocity of the earth’s rotation on its axis once in about 41000 years triggering a change in the angle of the earth’s tilt from an elliptical to circular orbit… thus making climate change inevitable.  

This change in the tilt of its axis alters the amount of Sun’s radiation falling on earth – accounts for change in seasons drastically in the middle and higher latitudes (Our Changing Climate Fall 1994 – Volume 4 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/RTN4.pdf) by Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington. Such changes inevitably have impact on zoological and biological diversity.

 (Zoological perspective of climate change and its impact in South Asia)

Speaking exclusively to this writer, Professor R. Sukumar of the Centre for Ecological Sciences at the premier Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, said “Climate change is an ongoing phenomenon over the past millions of years.  Between the Pleistocene Era (around 2.6 million years ago to about 10,000 years ago) which marks the beginning of the Holocene era there were about 25 periods of glaciation and inter glaciation with warmer climes lasting shorter periods. 

The Last Glacial Maximum being the coldest period of glaciation occurred about 20,000 years ago. The cooling trend would have started much before that. Cold periods were also arid periods as rainfall declined. During such cold periods the tropical moist forests would have shrunk or contracted to small areas. … These places are referred to as Pleistocene Refugia. In India only two such shrunk places were there … in the extreme southwest and northeast of the subcontinent. Elephants were confined to these refugia during extremely cold periods. 

The rest of India was arid scrub land or savanna ecosystems supporting fauna such as ostriches that can thrive in such ecosystems … (incidentally, giraffes were found in the subcontinent during the early Pleistocene while tigers entered the subcontinent from the Far East only after the climate warmed up after the Last Glacial Maximum - … somewhere between 20000 to 10000 years ago). This global warming would have facilitated an expansion of tropical moist forests on account of strengthening of the monsoon, and thus these more productive ranges of habitats would have supported a somewhat different faunal diversity.” 

Mammals like apes, antelopes, bats, cheetahs, wild dogs, elephants, ostriches, rhinos, wild dogs, hippos, giraffe, reptiles like snakes, crocodiles, etc have all been documented by studies of Kurnool Caves by G.L. Badam et al (http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/127/1272188698.pdf). Interestingly Asian Elephants started moving out of Pleistocene Refugia in extreme southwest (Southern Western Ghats) only when the climate became warmer supporting tropical broad leaved forests. 

It seems like the fauna found in Africa today were all once endemic to the Indian subcontinent too, but have gone locally extinct … as a geomorphological adaptation of climate change.

What is not so easy to comprehend is the cyclical pattern of El Nino. The pattern of the notorious El Nino cycles desperately needs to be studied accurately, if only to be prepared for the catastrophic impact the geological cycle has on agriculture, fishing, food security and global economy. Given its varying cycles and its differential impacts on micro climate right across the world, modelling El Nino triggered extreme weather globally has become the greatest challenge of our times. 

Could it be that volcanic eruptions in the South Pacific Gyre plausibly determine the course of currents accounting for reversing the normally anticlockwise course of the Humboldt Current on the west coast of Chile in the South Pacific? It thus alters the normal course of hydrometeorological cycles right across the world offsetting the hydrology and currents in each Latitude and Longitude… accounting for the variations in agro meteorology, fisheries, shipping, and global economy.

The role of seamounts in the South Pacific Ocean in warming the waters of the South Pacific Ocean  and also in reversing the normally anti clockwise cold Humboldt Current to a clockwise rotation demands credible attention too (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/15/do-underwater-volcanoes-have-an-effect-on-enso/). 

It is only when we understand the geological perspective of climate change can we do accurate justice to mitigation.  

Expert Interview of Mr George Grinson, CMFRI: Impact of climate change on fisheries (Text) 

Dr. Grinson George Fisheries scientist of Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute in an email interview with Malini Shankar, Digital Discourse Foundation

1.     What has been the average annual fish landing in India state-wise for the last 1.5 decades … say from the year 2000? In 9 maritime states and 2 UTs: On an average for India we are producing nearly 3.5 million metric tonnes.

2.      Do you see a change in fish landing in these years? We do see changes in marine fish landing pattern. This change is observed since we started collecting the data and inferred based on the historical time series. It is termed as inter annual fluctuation in fish landing. Our Institute ICAR-CMFRI was established in 1947. Within a decade we standardised the procedure for collecting fish landing data from all nine mainland maritime states and two UTs (Daman and Diu and Puducherry).    The methodology developed is vetted by the FAO of the UN. If we look into the fish landing data, since 1950s onwards we can see this inter-annual fluctuation occurring in marine fisheries. This is a natural phenomenon … some species increase and some others may decrease. On an average there is an increasing trend since 1950.

3.      To what do you attribute the decreasing fish landing year wise in the past few years? Not true. The decrease in fish landing is only relevant data after 2012 for a short period of three years recently. During 2013, 2014 and 2015 there was a decreasing trend in national landing data, but again in 2016 there is a slight recovery. Despite El Nino, during 2015 fish landing data at national level was 3.4 million metric tonnes. In 2012 when the maximum production was reported we produced 3.94 MMT.

4.      How did El Nino of 2015 affect fisheries in South Asia? Please give me detailed data state-wise for India, country wise for SAARC countries and a generic perspective on the Indian Ocean fisheries. If we see the data for 2016 it’s a 6.6% increase compared to 2015. The fall in landing in 2015 was mainly because of the decrease in landing of Indian Oil Sardines a pelagic fish species dominant in Indian marine fisheries. We don’t have data for SAARC countries country wise.  

5.  Why has fish landing in Gujarat increased while that in Kerala has receded to the 4th place in the last 5 years? Is the delta ecosystem of the Indus a factor in increasing fish yield on the coasts of Gujarat? Or could it be that fish are migrating north to escape the warmer seas near the equator? Gujarat tends to be a dominant fish catching state in India always. But during some years Kerala got the top slot because of bumper catch of Indian Oil Sardines which is the dominant fishery in Kerala waters. Gujarat fishers led on account of catch of demersal species such as Croakers and Sciaenid.

Secretary-General pledges higher bar on Climate Action, Energy Efficiency, stressing dire consequences of failure to embrace Green Economy

Following is UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ statement, on “Climate Action:  Mobilizing the World” at New York University, in New York on 30 May:

I would like to thank everyone at New York University, and especially the Stern School of Business, for your warm welcome and your role in making today’s gathering possible.  Let me also thank all of you for being here to discuss the crucial challenge of climate change and how we must address it.

I can think of no better audience -- this wonderful mix of scholars and scientists, students and activists, investors and entrepreneurs -- the people who, together, are making climate action real.  And I can think of no better place to have this conversation than here at New York University and the Stern School, where you are dedicated to cultivating solutions and a new generation of leaders.

This notion of intergenerational responsibility is very much on my mind.  My grandfather was born in 1875.  He could not have imagined the world we live in today.  Now I have three granddaughters of my own -- the oldest is 8.  I cannot imagine the world they will inhabit decades from now, when they will be my age.  But not knowing is no excuse for not acting to ensure that we do not undermine their future.

I want my grandchildren to inherit a healthy world, free of conflict and suffering -- and a healthy planet, rooted in low-carbon sustainable solutions.  That is my wish for everyone, everywhere.  To get there, we have our work cut out for us.

Allow me to be blunt.  The world is in a mess.  Countries and communities everywhere are facing pressures that are being exacerbated by megatrends, like population growth, rapid and many times chaotic urbanization, food insecurity, water scarcity, massive movements of population and migration… the list can go on and on.

But one overriding megatrend is far and away at the top of that list -- climate change.  Climate change is a direct threat in itself and a multiplier of many other threats, from poverty to displacement to conflict.  The effects of climate change are already being felt around the world.  They are dangerous and they are accelerating.

And so my argument today is that it is absolutely essential that the world implements the Paris Agreement – and that we fulfil that duty with increased ambition.  The reason is three-fold:  Climate change is undeniable.  Climate action is unstoppable.  And climate solutions provide opportunities that are unmatchable.

Let’s start with the reality of climate change today.  The science is beyond doubt.  The world’s top scientists have been shouting it from the rooftops.  As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has put it and I quote:  “Human influence on the climate system is clear.  The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts.”

If anything, that disruption is happening even faster than expected.  Last year was once again the hottest on record.  The past decade has also been the hottest on record.  Every geophysical system on which we depend is being affected, from mountains to oceans, from icecaps to forests, and across all the arable lands that provide our food.

Sea ice is at a historic low; sea levels are at a historic high, threatening the existence of low-lying island nations and cities.  The seas are also being affected by warmer temperatures, rapid acidification and coral bleaching, endangering the marine food chain on which so many livelihoods and economies depend.

On land, glaciers are retreating almost everywhere -- a risk to the breadbaskets of the world as rivers fed by glaciers run dry.  Soon the famous snows of Kilimanjaro will exist only in stories.  Here in the United States, only 26 of Glacier National Park’s glaciers remain.  When it was made a Park in 1910, there were around 150.  I hope you will never have to rename it “no-Glacier National Park”!

Further north, we see an unfolding crisis of epic proportions.  The ice caps in the Arctic Ocean are shrinking dramatically.  Some even predict that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by the summer of 2020.  That would be catastrophic for Arctic wildlife.  It would be a death-blow to the ways of life of indigenous peoples.  And it would be a disaster for the world.

Why?  Because ice reflects sunlight.  Dark water much less.  That means warming will accelerate.  Frozen tundra will thaw earlier and freeze later, releasing vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere.  Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.  This will mean more ice melting from the Greenland ice cap.  It could alter the Gulf Stream and affect food production, water security and weather patterns from Canada to India.  We are already seeing massive floods, more extreme tornadoes, failed monsoons and fiercer hurricanes and typhoons.

But slow-motion disasters are also speeding up.  Areas where drought once struck every decade are now seeing cycles of five or even two years between droughts.  Moreover, dry spells are lasting longer, from California to the Sahel.

The moral imperative for action is clear.  The people hit first and worst by climate change are the poor, the vulnerable and the marginalized.  Women and girls will suffer as they are always the most disproportionately affected by disasters.

The nations that will face the most profound consequences are the least responsible for climate change and the least equipped to deal with it.  Droughts and floods around the world mean poverty will worsen, famines will spread and people will die.  As regions become unliveable, more and more people will be forced to move from degraded lands to cities and to other nations.  We see this already across North Africa and the Middle East.

That is why there is also a compelling security case for climate action.  Around the world, military strategists view climate change as a threat to global peace and security.  We are all aware of the political turmoil and societal tensions that have been generated by the mass movement of refugees.

Imagine how many people are poised to become climate-displaced when their lands become unliveable.  Last year, more than 24 million people in 118 countries and territories were displaced by natural disasters.  That is three times as many as were displaced by conflict.

Climate change is also a menace to jobs, to property and to business.  With wildfires, floods and other extreme weather events becoming more common, the economic costs are soaring.  The insurance industry raised the alarm long ago.  They have been joined by many others across the business community.  They know that the time has come for transformation.

Climate action is gathering momentum not just because it is a necessity but also because it presents an opportunity -- to forge a peaceful and sustainable future on a healthy planet.  This is why Governments adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a pledge to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.

I applaud the immense efforts of my predecessor, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who brought the essential stakeholders to the table and helped forge this landmark Agreement.

It is worth taking a moment to step back and reflect on the unity that was forged in Paris.  It was a remarkable moment in the history of humankind.  The world came together for the first time to address this global challenge collectively.  And it did so at a time of division in so many other areas.  There has been nothing like it in terms of enabling the global community to work on an issue together that none of us can solve on our own.

Today, it is increasingly understood that implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development goes hand in hand with limiting global temperature rise and increasing climate resilience.  As of today, 147 parties representing more than 82 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions have ratified the Paris Agreement.  Every month, more countries are translating their Paris pledges into national climate action plans.

Yes, not everyone will move at the same pace or with equal vigour.  But if any Government doubts the global will and need for this accord, that is reason for all others to unite even stronger and stay the course.  It is reason to build ever broader coalitions -- with civil society and business, with cities and states, with academia and community leaders.

Indeed, all around the world, cities, regions, states and territories are setting their own ambitious targets.  Thousands of private corporations, including major oil and gas companies, are taking their own action.  They know that green business is good business.  It is not just the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to do.

Some may seek to portray the response to climate change as a fundamental threat to the economy.  Yet what we are witnessing in these early years of a systemic response is the opposite.  We are seeing new industries.  New markets.  Healthier environments.  More jobs.  Less dependency on global supply chains of fossil fuels.

The real danger is not the threat to one’s economy that comes from acting.  It is, instead, the risk to one’s economy by failing to act.  The message is simple:  The sustainability train has left the station.  Get on board or get left behind.  Those who fail to bet on the green economy will be living in a grey future.  On the other hand, those who embrace green technologies will set the gold standard for economic leadership in the twenty-first century.

Last year, solar power grew 50 per cent, with China and the United States in the lead.  Around the world, over half of the new power generation capacity now comes from renewables.  In Europe, the figure is more than 90 per cent.

The falling cost of renewables is one of the most encouraging stories on the planet today.  In the United States and China, new renewable energy jobs now outstrip those created in the oil and gas industries.  China aims to increase its renewable energy by about 40 per cent by 2020.  Major oil producers are also seeing the future and diversifying their economies.  Even Saudi Arabia announced plans to install 700 megawatts of solar and wind power.  And industry experts predict India’s solar capacity will double this year to 18 gigawatts.

Boosting energy efficiency is also crucial – for reducing climate risk and for increasing profits.  The International Energy Agency has indicated that investing in energy efficiency could increase global economic output by $18 trillion -- more than the outputs of the United States, Canada and Mexico combined.  Future spending on energy infrastructure alone could total some $37 trillion.

Now if that is the case, it is crucial for such massive investments to be sustainable and climate-friendly; otherwise, we will lock ourselves into bad practices for decades to come.

Given the facts about youth unemployment, air pollution and climate change, surely it is common sense to put our investments where they will generate the most savings, create the most jobs, deliver the biggest health dividends and have the most impact against global warming.

Surely that is why nearly two dozen of the world’s most successful business leaders, entrepreneurs and venture capitalists plan to invest in a fund called Breakthrough Energy Ventures, led by Bill Gates, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with clean energy technology.

It is why green bonds are starting to come in many different shades as the size of the market for securities designed to benefit the environment is on track to double again -- from $93 billion in 2016, to $206 [billion] this year.  It is why 60 per cent of the world’s 500 largest asset owners are taking steps to recognize the financial risks associated with climate change.

And it is why more than 7,000 cities in the newly launched Global Covenant of Mayors have agreed to report their emissions and climate progress according to a standard set of tools that are more rigorous than those currently used by many countries.  Here I want to salute my Special Envoy for Cities and Climate Change, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.  He is showing great leadership in mobilizing mayors and cities to build the resilient and dynamic cities of the future.

Science is speaking to us very clearly about what is happening.  Innovation is showing us very clearly what can be done.  If we want to protect forests and life on land, safeguard our oceans, create massive economic opportunities, prevent even more massive losses and improve the health and well-being of people and the planet, we have one simple option staring us in the face:  climate action.

Today, I call on all leaders of government, business and civil society to back the most ambitious action on climate change for the benefit of this generation and generations to come.  [As] Secretary-General, I am committed to mobilize the world to meet this challenge.  I will do so in at least five concrete ways.

First, I will intensify high-level political engagement to raise the bar on climate action.  The Paris pledges are historic but still do not go nearly far enough to limit temperature rise to well below 2 degrees and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.  Commitments so far could still see temperatures rise by 3 degrees or more.  So we must do our utmost to increase ambition and action until we can bend the emissions curve and slow down global warming.  Most immediately, I will also press for ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.  Next week’s Ocean Conference at United Nations Headquarters is yet another opportunity to build momentum.

Second, I will rally the full capacity of the United Nations development system behind climate action and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, especially at the country level.  Because that is where true change will be achieved.  As we support Member States, I will continue to emphasize the urgency of empowering the world’s women and girls.  There can be no successful response to a changing climate without also changing mind-sets about the key role of women in tackling climate change and building the future we want.

Third, I will use the convening power of the United Nations to work with Governments and all major actors, such as the coal, oil and gas industries, to accelerate the necessary energy transition.  Eighty per cent of the world’s energy still comes from fossil fuels -- oil, gas and coal.  We cannot phase out fossil fuels overnight.  We have to engage the energy industry and Governments to use fossil fuels as cleanly, sparingly and responsibly as possible, while transforming our energy systems.

I will work with all actors to promote a global energy transition, the greening of investments in infrastructure and transport, and progress on carbon pricing.  More and more politicians, policymakers and business actors are calling for a carbon price as the green economy’s missing link.  Putting a price on carbon at a global scale could unleash innovation and provide the incentives that industries and consumers need to make sustainable choices.

Fourth, I will work with countries to mobilize national and international resources to support mitigation, adaptation, resilience and the implementation of their national climate action plans.  And I will focus on strengthening resilience of the small island States against the existential threat that climate change poses to them.  I will encourage developed countries to fulfil the pledges they have made to support developing countries -- including for the Green Climate Fund.

As a matter of global solidarity, the international community must also help developing countries increase their capacity to generate their own resources and to gain access to capital markets.  The international financial institutions have a key role to play to help deliver innovative financing that matches the enormous needs.

And fifth, I will encourage new and strengthened partnerships for implementing the Paris Agreement through North-South, South-South and triangular cooperation.  We need to harness the enormous potential of these partnerships.  In all these areas, I will use every possible opportunity to persuade, prod and push for progress.  I will count on the vital forces of civil society to do the same.

Looking further ahead, I also intend to convene a dedicated climate summit in 2019 to make sure we reach the critical first review of Paris implementation with the strong wind of a green economy at our backs.

Let me also stress that my door is open to all who wish to discuss the way forward, even those who might hold divergent perspectives.  The climate conversation should cease to be a shouting match.

There will continue to be strong differences about how to achieve our climate goals.  Yet it is also clear that the journey from Paris is well under way.  The support across all sectors of society is profound.  The transition in the real economy is a fact.  There will be bumps along the path; that is understandable in a family of over 190 nations.  But with everyone’s participation, the world can bring the Paris Agreement fully to life.  I look forward to continuing to engage all countries in forging a truly shared vision of the way ahead that leaves no one behind.

Let me conclude where I began -- with all of you and with the power of people to make a difference.  Climate change is an unprecedented and growing threat.  The arguments for action are clear.  So are the immense opportunities for peace and prosperity if we act quickly and decisively.

All of us -- Governments, businesses, consumers -- will have to make changes.  More than that, we will have to “be” the change.  This may not be easy at times.  But for the sake of today’s and future generations, it is the path we must pursue.

This is my message to all the world’s leaders.  Students, scientists and others such as you across the world helped to put the climate challenge on the table.  If we work together as a global community, we can emerge stronger, safer and more prosperous for our shared future and the future of all of our grandchildren like my three granddaughters.

Name: Digital Discourse Foundation

URL: https://www.digitaldiscourse.org.in 

Address: # 1 / 1 Police Station Road,

Basavanagudi

Bangalore 

Karnataka, India

Pin: 560004

Tel: +91 80 26677090

Cellphone (s): +919448055645 / +919900604440 / +919844253935  

Email: director@digitaldiscourse.org.in; directordigitaldiscourse@gmail.com